If it feels like all your friends are getting divorced don’t give up on marriage altogether, because the numbers tell a different story.
University of Maryland demographer Philip Cohen has been followingdivorce stats for several years now and he’s found a 3% decline in the divorce rate since the 2008 recession, as reported by Tech Insider.
Judging from the graphs he put up on his blog, the rate ofDIVORCE FOR MEN has dropped from 18.6 out of 1,000 married people to 15.8. Meanwhile, the rate has dropped from 20.9 to 17.9 for women. Why men and women are different is questionable, but it could be because one partner reports “divorced” while the other is in denial.
The numbers haven’t been steady on the decline, however. From 2010 to 2012 there was a slight bump up in the divorce rate, which could be related to the recession. Still, the fact that the numbers have returned to a decline after that brief two-year blip could show the downwards trend is here to stay, writes Cohen: “With another deep drop in 2014, now it looks like divorce rates are on a downward slide, but in the years after the recession there was a bump up — so maybe recession-related divorces (e.g., those related to job loss or housing market stressors) took a couple years to materialize, producing a lull in the ongoing plunge. Who knows.”
There is reason to doubt the stats, though — eight years is a short period to study after all. But a longer study, from 1980 to 2008, cleverly title“Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States,”SUGGESTED that a decline in the divorce rate could be on the way.
Cohen quoted from that study on his blog:
“If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the levelling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage.”
So way to go happily married people, keep it up!