55-45 to Labor (open thread) – The Poll Bludger | #lovescams | #military | #datingscams

A middling reaction to the budget from the latest Newspoll, although Labor maintains its dominance on voting intention.

The Australian reports the post-budget Newspoll finds Labor retaining its strong two-party preferred lead of 55-45, in from 56-44 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 38% (steady), Coalition 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (steady). Both leaders are up on personal approval, Anthony Albanese by four to 57% and Peter Dutton by three to 36% – no word yet on disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Albanese’s disapproval is up one to 38% and Dutton’s is down one to 51%). Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister shifts from 54-28 to 56-29.

Respondents were asked the same set of questions on the budget that Newspoll has been posing since 1988, producing results exactly in line with the long term average on personal impact, with 20% expecting they will be better off and 36% worse off. The results on overall economic impact are net positive, with 33% saying it would be good and 28% bad, although the former is about eight points below the historic average while the latter is par for the course, reflecting a higher than usual result for neither good nor bad. Perhaps relatedly, only 13% expected the budget would have a positive impact on inflation compared with 39% for negative and 33% for no difference. Thirty-five per cent felt the opposition would have done a better job compared with 49% who did not, a difference in line with the long term average, although with a slightly lower undecided rate.

The poll was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of around 1600, though there’s no precise indication of the latter yet that I can see. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll was in fact conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1516. Note that two fresh posts have been pushed down the batting order by this one: a guest post by Adrian Beaumont on today’s Turkish elections, and the latest in the Call of the Board series looking in detail at seat results at last year’s federal election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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