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Duncan Garner: Labour won’t poll this high on election night – or high enough to govern alone


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These truly are extraordinary times and anything is possible in politics from here.

No party has ever polled this high in the history of the Newshub poll, going back decades. 

My boarder, Druffy, threw expletives at me when he saw the news.

“They’re gone, they’ll be lucky to get 20. What does Mark think?!”

“He’ll be filthy.”

Sure, it looks like a one-horse-race right now, but I also know history shows things tighten up closer to the election. They always do. 

In fact, I’m so confident Labour won’t poll this high on the night, or even high enough to govern alone, that if I’m wrong – and if either happens – I promise to become a vegan for a year. 

But even if it moved 10 points, it’s still bad news for National.

They’re caught in a downward spiral and screaming, “it’s a rogue”, “it’s a rogue”, only reminds me that it rhymes with, “let’s blame Boag, let’s blame Boag” – and it’s the former president’s underhand tactics, leaking the private details of COVID patients, that partially allowed the rot to take hold.

National is not only paying the price of speed dating through three leaders in as many months, but poor discipline and grubby antics turn voters off. 

Collins should be happy the tide can’t go out much further and her job is to return National to some respectability. She won’t go down without a fight. I would say she could pinch some NZ First voters, but they’ve had memory fade and can no longer recall ever voting for Winston.

But Ardern is out on her own, presented with a platform she didn’t need a second invite to use. In truth, Labour’s record on delivery has been poor, but this election looks like it’s not just a referendum on cannabis and euthanasia. It’s a referendum on Ardern and COVID, and as the world locks down, we may have just realised how lucky we are to be running around free – and Ardern is clearly being rewarded by voters.

Duncan Garner is the host of The AM Show.


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